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Planning for the unknowable

It’s never a bad idea to plan for the future. However, having said that, I think it’s a bit premature to really start talking about re-starting all elements of the normal life that we all experienced prior to this global pandemic.

Of course, planning for coming out of the greatest freeze to the global economy since the second world war has to take place. And it’s vital that people have the goal of normality to look forward to as we come through this bizarre time of social distancing travel and work restrictions, and every other restriction that’s going on. But it’s unrealistic to expect the Government to have any clear ideas of when a return to ‘full normality’ - the way things used to be is.

They don’t know and they can’t know. They may never know but any lessening of restrictions will be staggered and done in a piecemeal manner and may be rolled back if the virus surges back.

This week the GAA confirmed that the 2020 inter-county championships in hurling and football are “highly unlikely” to begin before July at the earliest. More will be decided and discussed at Friday's remotely held Special Congress.

The senior inter-county championships were due to begin in May. Other sports bodies have pushed back events. But no-one really knows when events like sporting events will take place again.

Last Friday, the Government confirmed that the strict measures currently in place will continue until at least 5 May to try to limit the spread of the virus.

Health Minister Simon Harris said it is so important that to use the three week period we’re now entering “to do everything humanly possible to suppress the virus and save lives. Please stay the course, please stay focused - these three weeks really, really matter.”

Rather than speculating on when things might return to normal, Minister Harris wants “to focus on the here-and-now - let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s not waste these three weeks by anticipating what might come in the future,” he said.

He said there's “not going to be a magic point” at the start of May when life can return to what it was like before Covid and that some degree of social distancing will likely remain part of life until a vaccine or treatment is developed.

One of the paradoxes of our excellent efforts at flattening the curve, are that our curve, as a result, is longer than other countries who have failed to do as well as we did. That means we will return to normality much more slowly than they will.

If we don’t do that, the virus will surge here more, as less of out population has had the virus than countries such as the UK and the US. It seems unfair but many aspects of this virus are unfair.