We all stand with Ukraine
It’s incredibly sad to witness the terrible scenes taking place in Ukraine. While the heroism and stoicism of the Ukranian people is inspiring, I can’t watch too much of it without thinking of all the needless death and destruction they have already and will endure in the future.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin would have had a number of objectives in ordering this terrible invasion. They include improving Russia’s security, cementing his legacy as some latter-day Peter the Great, and testing the West and highlighting how weak it is.
In nearly all these things, I think he will fail. He has succeeded in making his country a pariah state and he has never been more unpopular in his own country. His legacy may be forever tarnished for dragging Russia into another Afghanistan - a conflict which did more to lead to the breakup of the USSR than any other.
He has highlighted some of the West’s weakness - no country is willing to send troops on the ground against a nuclear power like Russia but he has also ensured that NATO has never seemed more relevant and together.
It has highlighted Russia’s weaknesses. Russia may win the combat war but it has lost the PR war and it will lose the economic war.
Russia and its citizens will be brought to their knees economically. This war means that Putin has irrevocably weakened his own position. Domestic unrest is likely following the economic destruction of Russia.The vast majority of the world’s governments now want nothing to do with Russia - it is a true pariah state.
It has caused Germany to cast away the pacifist stance it has maintained since 1945 and announce a huge increase on defence spending, more than two per cent of GDP. “We must put a stop to warmongers like Putin. That requires strength of our own,” the new Chancellor Olaf Schulz said this week.
Finland and Sweden may now join a revitalised NATO. Even neutral Switzerland has moved to freeze Russia’s assets. The European Parliament has accepted Ukraine's application to join the European Union. A special admission procedure has begun.
As Ursula von der Leyen put it: “If Putin is seeking to divide Europe, break up NATO and divide us all, he has achieved exactly the opposite. We are more united than ever.”
The EU has crossed a rubicon too. For the first time, the EU will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and equipment to a country under attack. I was initially skeptical of the impact of these on Russia but they are having a clear effect.It seems that the sanctions are already having a huge impact on Russia's economy, with queues outside banks and the rouble losing value every day.
The West’s strong, unified response has meant that China will be less likely to take over Taiwan. It’s likely that Putin needs to find a dignified way to get out of Ukraine after his army’s poor performance but will that be possible? And how many people will have to die first?