Trump's chaos sees no end
In just a few days Donald Trump has managed to alienate all his country’s allies in the Middle East bar Israel and kill hundreds of people.
Just another week’s work in the life of the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize winner.
Last Saturday the US and Israel attacked Iran from the air firing hundreds of missiles at the Middle Eastern country killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with a wave of attacks across the region.
Iran has fired hundreds of cheap missiles at Israel and other Gulf allies of the US like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Iraq. Air defences in those countries have taken down most of the missiles using expensive interceptor defensive missiles. However, analysts estimate that the US and Israeli stockpiles are now quite depleted and believe Iran is holding back its more damaging missile stores. Soon, Israel as well as US military assets may be vulnerable to attack.
Iran believes it can hold out for a period of months yet and the US is not likely to want to engage in a ground invasion. However, an air attack alone has never forced a regime change - one fo the many stated goals of the US attack.
The shortage of interceptor rockets is already directly affecting the US, Israel, and their allies. Some allies are now openly accusing the US of turning its back on them and prioritizing Israel’s protection instead.
Prof. Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science in the University of Chicago specializing in security affairs said on Sky News that attempting regime change by an air attack has never worked before. He argues that no regime in modern history has “fallen solely because it was bombed from the air. Cities burn. Infrastructure collapses. Leaders are targeted. But political power survives. Bombs break buildings. They do not, by themselves, break regimes,” he says.
Yesterday the UN Committee on the Rights of the Child said it was “deeply disturbed” by the deaths of children during the war, after a girls’ school in Iran was bombed. More than 160 children were reported killed after a girls’ school was hit on Saturday. The UN Committee on the Rights of the Child said: “This is a reminder that children are among the most vulnerable in armed conflicts, and must never be treated as collateral damage.”
Is the attack on Iran by the US and Israel lawful? The consensus among legal experts seems to be that the initial strikes were unlawful. Israel has cited the likelihood of “imminent threat” by Iran as its justification but “imminent threat” is not at all certain. Indeed Donald Trump claimed to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear programme last June.
Iran is entitled to attack US and Israeli military bases in response to the attack. However, a hotel and airport have been hit by Iran in Dubai. Deliberate attacks on civilian targets are illegal under international humanitarian law and attacks on countries which are not party to a conflict are also forbidden.
This war will not be over quickly.